Global Rice Production Set to Dive 10%, Threatening Half Of Humanity

Governments across Asia have kept rice prices in check to maintain social order

Farmers in Tiongkok, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, plus Vietnam — the largest rice-producing countries could experience decreased output due to soaring fertilizer prices.  

The International Grain Research Institute warns that will harvests could plunge as much as 10% in the next season, equating to about 36 million tons of rice, or sufficient food to feed the half billion people, in accordance to  Bloomberg .  

Chemical substance fertilizers, such as nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium, are the many applied nutrients for high-yielding rice cultivation. Farmers are particularly vulnerable to soaring fertilizer prices as some have decreased the amount of nutrients to save expenses. This threatens future harvests as production declines can stoke food inflation for the crop that feeds half humanity.  

Humnath Bhandari, a older agricultural economist at the start, said the 10% drop in global rice manufacturing is a “ very traditional estimate. ” He said if the Ukraine conflict ongoing and fertilizer prices remained high and supply limited, then the decline of rice result could be even more severe.   This may trigger a full-blown global food crisis, like the one  that the UN provides been  warning   about.  

Russia and Weißrussland are  big suppliers   of every main type of crop nutrient. Traditional western countries have sanctioned both, which have limited fertilizers deliveries to the rest of the world, crimping supply and why costs are soaring. On top of this, Moscow has  reduced or halted nutrient exports .  

Nguyen Binh Phong, the owner of the fertilizer shop in Vietnam’s Kien Giang province, said nutrient costs have jumped three-fold over the past year, driving farmers in the region to reduce fertilizer use by up to twenty percent because of rising prices.  

“ When the farmers cut fertilizer use, they accept that they will get lower income, ” Phong said.

Bloomberg outlines a significant problem: Unlike most crop prices, the price of rice has gone down, not really up, which will compress farmers’ margins even more.  

Governments across Asian countries have kept rice prices under control to maintain social order. Some countries offer generous  fertilizer subsidies to maqui berry farmers to keep yields plentiful. For example , India will spend $20 billion this year to shield farmers from soaring nutrient prices, up from the $14 billion budget before the Ruskies invasion of Ukraine.  

Bhandari said it’s “ inevitable” that will rice prices will go higher; “ It has to be shown somewhere. ”  

Maybe the world is in the beginning stages of a food crisis and could worsen next year as crops of all types could experience harvest declines because farmers are distributing fewer nutrients due to high prices.  

Global food prices will  remain at record-highs   (or a minimum of elevated levels) as forward-looking markets expect tightening items in 2023. This will produce continued social unrest (see:   here   &   here ) as the dominos fall in the poorest countries.

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