Two weeks right after we learned that in Q1, US GDP had “ shockingly” contracted, just one pillar was left holding up the “ strong” US economy, the same economy that the Fed’s record tightening cycle can be hoping to push into economic downturn: the labor market.
Nevertheless , that too has now turned, then one week after a big ADP private payrolls miss, following the ISM manufacturing employment catalog printed just shy associated with contraction where the ISM Services employment index already is definitely, and after the first positive print in the Challenger job slashes index since Jan 2021…
… it now seems that even though the official payrolls report continues to paint the somewhat rosy picture, the particular labor market has also formally peaked, because moments ago the BLS reported that will in the week ending April 7, initial claims leaped 203, 000, up from your upward revised 202, 500 print a week earlier, plus 11K more than the 192K consensus forecast, and the best print since February 11, a troubling confirmation the best days for the US jobs market are now at the rear of us.
The breakdown by state did not show any notable outliers with the exception of New York State which usually saw the drop, reversing the prior week’s move in order to surged the most.
That said, even though the labor marketplace has peaked, there is clearly still a ways to move before the US jobs marketplace is in freefall – the bogey that the Fed has to see before it puts a stop to its tightening – even though now that weakness is beginning to set in, keep a close eyes on more reports associated with corporate mass layoffs (such as this week’s unexpected notice from Carvana which just laid off more than 10% of its workers). Enough of those, and even the BLS will have to admit that the final pillar propping up the US economy just turned red.
Costs Gates and the World Financial Forum are planning to replace your food with gene-edited produce and lab-grown meat.