Despite back-to-back contractions in GDP, President Joe Biden, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and all of their supporters in the corporate media insist the US economy isn’t in a recession .
But the only data these people ever point to in order to online backup their assertion is the “ strong” labor market.
The problem with this rewrite is the labor market is a lagging indicator and it’s beginning to show cracks.
Job openings fell over expected in June.
According to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS report), job openings fell by 605, 1000 to 10. 7 million as of June 30. The particular forecast was for 11 million vacancies.
While job openings remain at an elevated level, the trend is clearly downward.
In fact , it appears job opportunities are about to fall away from a cliff.
Meanwhile, first-time unemployment states are trending upward. Every week jobless claims were above expectations again last week, dropping a mere 5, 000 in the previous week’s 8-month high. In fact , the 256, 000 initial claims last week could have been an increase except for the truth that they revised the previous week’s number up to 261, 1000. More significantly, the 4-month moving average rose can be 8, 000 claims.
We saw the surge in job spaces as the economy opened up following the government shutdowns for the pandemic. Many people never went back to work. The labor participation price remains low at sixty two. 2%. That created an exceptionally tight labor market. Despite an economic slowdown clearly underway, it will take a while for the labor market to loosen up. But that’s clearly happening.
It won’t be a long time before the Biden administration and the central bankers at the Given can’t point to the “ strong” labor market any longer. As Peter Schiff mentioned in an interview along with Megyn Kelly , the particular increase in unemployment is coming.
“ People who are pointing to the low unemployment rate and saying this means we’re not in the recession, that’s nonsense. Unemployment is a lagging indicator. The unemployment rate is going to rise as the recession continues. ”
Schiff argued further that the present labor market isn’t because strong as everybody states.
“ We have a very weak labour market. Real wages are usually collapsing. Wages have never actually fallen this much in real terms in history. That is a vulnerable labor market. When you have a strong labor market, workers may demand raises. They have power. They can go to their companies and say, ‘ I would like more money or I’m going to stop and take another job. ‘ That’s not happening. Actually a lot of workers are taking second jobs and third tasks because they can’t make ends meet on the main job. That is a vulnerable labor market. ”