A common refrain from people who are critical associated with alternative economists is that we’ve been predicting crisis for so long that “ eventually we are right. ” These are generally people that don’t understand the nature of economic decline – It’s as an avalanche that builds over time, then breaks and quickly escalates as it flows down the mountain.
What they don’t understand is that they are in the middle of an economic collapse RIGHT NOW, and they just can’t see it because they have been acclimated to the presence of the snow and cold.
Economic decline is a procedure that takes many years, even though you might get an event like the marketplace crash of 1929 or maybe the crash of 2008, these moments of panic are just the wreckage left behind by great wave of tumbling ice that everyone should have seen coming far beforehand, but they refused.
In 2022 the job of warning people is much easier than it used to be because we are well past the midpoint of the process of decline. However believe it or not, I still obtain people today who claim that we all analysts are “ disaster mongers. ” The power associated with willful ignorance is truly amazing. It’s enough to make a person blind to stagflationary problems, supply chain disruptions, quickly inflating prices, stock market carnage, bond market instability, record consumer debt, and international discord.
At this point, I believe if a person can’t see the dangers ahead they are probably a waste of time and space and are destined to become buried in the ice; annoying that can be done for them. Yes, there are several people out there that don’t get exposed to the information and we have to take all of them into account, but my concern will be people that are alert and aware and try to give them a sense of what point in the collapse process we find ourselves.
In the past 30 days there has been a considerable uptick in economic and geopolitical action that suggests we are entering a new phase, and not amazingly it’s all accumulating before we hit October. Here are the events that I find most concerning:
The European Energy Crisis
This is an event that I have been predicting since the Russian attack of Ukraine and now it really is upon us. I published about it extensively in my current article ‘ Europe Is Facing Energy Catastrophe And It’s Going To Bleed More than Into The US’ so I won’t rehash everything that information here. What I do want to point out is the finish lack of planning on the part of Western officials to deal with the danger. It is as if they WANT a complete spectrum disaster.
Russia has now completely cut off natural gas supplies to European countries, which represent around forty percent of all EU energy sources. Europe’s benchmark natural gas prices spiked by 28% this morning, on top of already existing inflation. Oil supplies are also in high decline for Europe and the EU government has pledged to cut what’s left associated with Russian oil imports simply by sea at the end of the year. Sadly, they have offered very little when it comes to solutions to the supply-side problem.
There has been look at increasing imports of option resources from other nations, but the EU is already buying up around 75% of all liquid natural gas from the US. OPEC essential oil producers have indicated they do not be attempting to increase creation anytime soon (probably because they still cannot due to inflation in operation costs). There is NO backup energy resource for Europe; it doesn’t exist right now. They will try to buy up whatever coal, oil and gas they could find on the market while traveling up prices even more for other countries. They will nevertheless come up short, which means individuals are going to freeze this winter season.
Best situation scenario is that there are mostly mild temps and people barely scrape buy with minimum heating. But EU market is going to suffer and many manufacturers are going to cut production (which mean more stress for the global supply chain).
Core Inflation Is Still Rising
As I warned last week in my article ‘ It’s A Fact That Needs Duplicating: The Federal Reserve Is A Suicide Bomber, ‘ inflation is ongoing to rise despite the Fed’s ongoing interest rate hikes, giving the central bank even more ammunition to justify higher rates into extreme economic some weakness.
The latest CPI print showed an increase to 8. 3% and was obviously a shock to markets which universally expected a drop. This is the nature of stagflation – Even with falling requirement prices continue to climb or even remain high for extended periods. The stagflation event of the 1970s lasted for a decade until the Fed jacked rates to 21% and then employment crumbled in the early 1980s.
This doesn’t mean that rates will go to 21% this time; they don’t need to. Most it would take is a Government Funds Rate of around 4% – 5% to crash our current QE addicted system. A seventy five bps rate hike has become widely expected at the next Fed meeting this month, with some predicting a hundred bps hike. This would put us close to crash area for markets and for employment, though I think we still have well into 2023 just before unemployment really starts to surge.
Putin’s Meeting With Xi
As I write this particular, Vladimir Putin is set to fulfill with China’s Xi Jinping and the nature of the meeting is not clear. There are the most obvious points of agreement such as China’s continued purchases of Russian oil and other goods, as well as the ongoing plan to create a pipeline to China by 2025. There is also strategic cooperation which is evident in the current naval exercises between the two nations around Japan plus Taiwan.
The timing of the meeting is concerning to me, because the prime season for a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan is definitely fast approaching (October is the greatest month for naval motions to avoid typhoons). China would not necessarily need to commit to the ground invasion, either. They can simply cut off all import/export trade from any resource other than China and deprive Taiwan until they accept unification.
Addititionally there is the issue of Ukraine and hands sales. With the amount of propaganda coming from Ukrainian Intelligence and NATO, it’s hard to say what is actually happening, but I suspect Russia is definitely changing strategies and repositioning to deploy missile plus artillery bombardment of infrastructure, including power grids plus water. This is a tactic that will Russia has avoided to get months (until this week) , which is amazing because one of the first measures generally taken by the US during a good invasion is to eliminate most key infrastructure (as we all did in Iraq). You would think Russia would have performed the same, but perhaps they were saving that scenario intended for winter when it is harder for Ukraine to cope.
This could make Ukraine essentially unlivable in the coming winter for the majority of of the population. Putin might be seeking to ensure China remains a steady economic partner need to geopolitical pressures increase. They may even be making a offer of mutual support: China and taiwan takes Taiwan while The ussr makes Ukraine a source wasteland and they each support the other economically when NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY ORGANIZATION counties try to impose sanctions on China. We probably won’t know until October, but the timing of the meeting ought to raise eyebrows.
If the manure is about hitting the fan in Taiwan along with Ukraine, then diplomatic and economic ties will be severed and western access to China’s manufacturing will be cut. This is a problem for China’s economy, certainly, which may be precisely why they have continued their bulk covid lockdowns well after every other government has empty them. Could this end up being practice for civil regulates in an impending war environment?
China’s worldwide dominance in imports/exports gives them considerable economic influence in trade, however. Many nations would not support sanctions against them. Also, their own vast holdings of US bucks and Treasuries could be utilized as a weapon to harm or destroy the dollar’s world reserve status. In the event that China invades Taiwan this season, then all bets are usually off – The financial decline will move quickly from that point on.
There are various other trends which factor into the crash environment but the above factors are the most current and hold the biggest potential for causing a domino effect globally. The question that always occurs is “ what can we do about it? ” Not much in terms of prevention. What we can do, though, is prepare in your area to weather the surprise. This means stocking necessities just before they rise even further in cost or become non-existent. Turn into a producer and learn a valuable ability for survival in a depleted economy Organize with people locally who are on the same page to make security and alternative trade opportunities.
Hopefully, the aware citizenry may rise to the challenge and organization will be extensive, because the worst case scenario would be great many completely isolated people all of the vying against each other rather than working towards mutual security. Even in a slow fall scenario this is a problem in terms of rising crime; so plan on working with others if you want to prevent inevitable third world conditions.