February 4, 2023

The particular Recession Everybody Denies Exists Is Going to Get Worse

“The very popular stocks that a lot of individuals have crowded into during the bubble — these stocks, despite the fact that they’ve come down a lot within 2022, they still have quite a distance to fall. “

Peter Schiff recently appeared on Dan Bongino’s  Unfiltered   on  Fox News   to talk about the economy,   inflation , the stock market, the Federal Reserve and investing in 2023. Peter said the recession that everybody denies exists is going to get worse, and so is inflation.

Some people in the mainstream seem to think a big stock market rally is in the particular cards. Peter said the optimisim is unfounded.

“ We don’t think it’s going to be a good season for the stock market. I think you will find going to be some stocks and shares that do well. Unfortunately, many Americans don’t own these stocks. ”

Philip said the ones that most traders do own are going to go down.

“ The very popular stocks that a lot of people have crowded into throughout the bubble — these shares, even though they’ve come down a great deal in 2022, they still have a long way to fall. And i believe there’s a lot of risk in 2023, not just in the market, but in the particular economy. ”

Bongino referenced  an op-ed in the  New York Post   by Tobey maguire Fisher arguing that the bad news, especially in the job market, is already written into the script plus priced into the market. Which means we may well have a “ summer of love” in the stock market with a healthy rebound. Peter said people are underestimating just how bad the news is going to get.

“ First of all, a lot of people think inflation is going to come down. Decades. I think the decline can be what’s transitory. I think we’re going to be making new year-over-year levels in inflation before the finish of the year. ”

Peter continues to be arguing that a declining money and an ultimate Fed pivot away from monetary tightening will mean more inflation in the future, even if we get some comfort in the CPI over the next few months. He  went this point home in a recent podcast .

“ That is the important point that seems to be dropped on everybody. What traders are trying to figure out is ‘ has inflation peaked? ‘ Have we seen maximum inflation? Now, I think the solution to that question is no. I don’t think inflation has peaked. Now, it may have peaked for a short period of time. It may take until the 2nd half of 2023 before all of us get a year-over-year rate associated with inflation that was higher than the high water mark for 2022. Who knows? Maybe it will take in to 2024. But the one thing that will I’m certain of is that wish not going anywhere close to 2%. And that is what traders still don’t understand — the fact that days of low inflation are over, and we’re residing in an era of high inflation. That is a complete game-changer for the Given and the Fed has however to come to terms using this new reality, nor has the market. ”

And during his discussion with Bongino, Peter said the notion the economic climate is about to rebound is nothing but a fantasy.

“ The recession that everybody denies is present is actually going to get worse. Therefore , we’re going to have a weaker economy and stronger inflation. The financial markets are not expecting that, and neither is the Fed. ”

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