Because the war in Ukraine rages on, there is little question that the human cost has been enormous for Ukraine, which includes what is likely more than 100, 000 soldiers who have died in battle operations .
However , there was one man who predicted much of exactly what has come to pass in the fight in the east of European countries: George Soros.
The billionaire oligarch financier, often portrayed as a humanist, promoted a hard-nosed geopolitical strategy in his 1993 piece entitled “ Toward a New Globe Order: The Future of NATO. ”
In the piece, he describes how Eastern Europeans could be used as the “ manpower” in coming conflicts in order to reduce the number of deaths within Western countries, which Soros argues the West would not politically tolerate, unlike the east of Europe.
“ The United States would not end up being called upon to act as the policeman of the world. When it works, it would act in conjunction with others. Incidentally, the combination of manpower from Eastern Europe with the technical capabilities of NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY ORGANIZATION would greatly enhance the military potential of the Relationship because it would reduce the risk of body bags designed for NATO countries, which is the primary constraint on their willingness to behave. This is a viable alternative to the looming world disorder, ” wrote Soros in the post.
Soros acknowledges that the NATO countries have no appetite for “ body bags, ” but his statement implicitly indicates that Eastern Europeans may fill this role.
What Soros described appears to be unfolding exactly as he predicted regarding the battle in Ukraine. Armed with expensive NATO weapons, Ukrainian troops are actively countering Russian federation, which Soros had currently feared would become a nationalist nation opposed to the global purchase he was promoting within 1993. The powerful Western countries have the necessary weapons, and Ukraine has the manpower. Given that Soros already saw the potential of what this symbiotic match could produce on the battlefield decades in advance will probably bolster his reputation like a calculating — and perhaps questionable — strategic thinker.
As Soros predicted, Ukrainian society seems to be tolerating the high death cost in its current conflict along with Russia. During the Vietnam War, the U. T. lost 58, 220 over the course of approximately 10 years, and yet, the war saw strong opposition from the American public. Regardless of a far higher death toll in a far smaller period of time, Ukrainian society has seen little in terms of protests.
The lack of protest in Ukraine may also be helped by the fact that Ukraine provides suspended most of civil modern society, banned resistance parties and media , and even outlawed the Russian Orthodox Church. Another key factor in society’s perspective on the conflict is that the war is certainly taking place on Ukrainian dirt, which is a highly motivating aspect for Ukrainian soldiers.
All those Ukrainian bodies, of course , have come with a major price tag for Russia, with the country’s cemeteries also filling as quickly or even more so. Precise figures on casualties to get either side remain unofficial and are likely inexact, however the war is costing both nations dearly in terms of life.
In the same article, Soros required a “ new world purchase. ” The word is often derided in business media as a conspiracy theory, but Soros openly utilizes it. In addition , in the item, the new world order he or she calls for is remarkably globalist and centralized. In other words, precisely the type of new world order critics of his, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbá n, have been warning about for over a decade.
“ Therefore , the only basis to use it is collective security. Which is where the problem lies. The particular collapse of the Soviet empire has created a collective protection problem of the utmost gravity. Without a new world order, you will have disorder; that much is clear. Yet who will act as the tour’s policeman? That is the question that needs to be answered, ” Soros wrote.
Soros outlines a number of his theories within the piece, referring to open plus closed societies as well as the “ theory of revolutionary change, ” which he said he had also applied to monetary markets. The billionaire identifies how the dissolution of the Soviet Union presented new worldwide security challenges but also possibilities.
The original mission was to defend the free world against the Soviet disposition. That mission is outdated; but the collapse of the Soviet empire has left a security vacuum which has the potential of turning into the “ black hole. ” This presents a different kind of threat than the Soviet empire did. There is no direct danger from the region to the NATO countries; the danger is within the region, and it concerns conditions within states as much as relationships in between states. Therefore , when NATO has any objective at all, it is to project the power and influence to the region, and the mission is best defined in terms of open and closed societies.
Closed societies based on nationalist principles constitute a threat to security simply because they need an enemy, possibly outside or within. But the threat is extremely different in character in the one NATO was constructed to confront, and a very different approach is required to combat this particular threat. It involves the building of democratic states and open up societies and embedding them in a structure which precludes certain kinds of behavior.
Soros also writes in his piece that NATO had been racing to grant a regular membership to countries in Main and Eastern Europe just before “ Russia recovers. ” Soros seems to see NATO as actively transgressing against Russia during a time the country was still in chaos following the drop of communism.
“ The countries of Main Europe are clamoring meant for full membership of NATO as soon as possible, preferably before Russian federation recovers. Russia objects, not because it harbors any designs on its former disposition but because it sees simply no advantage in consenting. Its national pride has been hurt and it is sick and tired of making concessions without corresponding benefits, ” writes Soros.
The billionaire activist also makes a amount of other proposals in the item, including offering NATO a regular membership to Japan, his objective being the creation of a “ new world order. ”
“ Japan should be inquired to join NATO. Then we would have the beginnings of an architecture for a ” new world ” order. It is based on the Usa as the remaining superpower and on open society as the organizing principle. It consists of a number of alliances, the most important of which is usually NATO and, through NATO, the Relationship for Peace which girds the Northern Hemisphere, ” he writes.