March 25, 2023

Higher Excess Deaths Clearly Associated with Higher Vaccination Rates in the uk, New Analysis Shows

The more vaccine dosages an area of England has received, the greater the number of excess deaths it has experienced, a good analysis of  official  data  has found – adding to worries that the novel Covid vaccines are contributing to the particular sharp rise in excess deaths seen since mid-2021. The  analysis  looked at excess passing away rates and vaccination prices for all 300-plus […]#@@#@!!

The more vaccine doses the of England has obtained, the greater the number of excess fatalities it has experienced, an analysis of  official   data   has found – adding to worries that the new Covid vaccines are adding to the sharp rise in excess deaths seen since mid-2021.

The  analysis   looked at excess death rates and vaccination rates for those 300-plus lower tier management areas in England. It used pre-pandemic five-year average (2015-19) as a baseline and controlled for confounding factors such as age and deprivation simply by comparing the findings in the vaccination era to those in the first Covid wave, before vaccines were available (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Vaccines as of March 7th 2021 (first dose only), fatalities from spring 2020 Covid wave

In the first wave (March 15th to June 21st 2020) the areas which would embark on to be more highly vaccinated had lower excess deaths on average (the reference vaccination rate is as of March 7th 2021, first dosage only). This is a result of the healthy vaccinee effect, whereby people who choose to get vaccinated tend on average also to become people who had better wellness outcomes pre-vaccine (note that vaccination and health both tend to correlate with wealth). As a result, even if the vaccine was a placebo that had simply no effect, more-vaccinated areas could have fewer excess deaths on average than less-vaccinated areas. The particular downward slope in the chart over is thus a baseline regarding what happens after vaccine rollout. After the vaccination rollout, when the slope becomes steeper it means that the more-vaccinated locations have even lower extra deaths than they did before the rollout, indicating the particular vaccine may be lowering the death rate and conserving lives as intended. On the other hand, if the slope becomes shallower or reverses direction it means something is counteracting the background health advantage of the more-vaccinated areas, suggesting the vaccines may be having the opposite a result of the intended one plus increasing excess deaths.

The analysis looked at the three intervals of excess deaths in the uk after the vaccine rollout (Figure 2). These are, broadly, the Alpha period of winter 2020-21 (December 20th 2020 in order to March 7th 2021), the particular Delta period of the second half 2021 (June 27th 2021 to January 9th 2022) and the Omicron period of 2022 (March 27th 2022 to January 1st 2023) – though it’s important to keep in mind that for your Delta and Omicron periods many or most of the excess deaths were not Covid related.

Figure 2

The low vaccine insurance during the Alpha period, really early in the rollout, associated with findings for that period uninformative and they have been omitted right here.

The results for the double-dosed during the Delta period, on the other hand, are striking (Figure 3). (N. B. ‘ double-dosed’ here doesn’t include triple-dosed; the 0% vaccinated point is the City of London. )

Figure 3

The downward slope of the pre-vaccine baseline (the healthy vaccinee effect) went completely, and now there is a superficial upward slope. Far from the particular more-vaccinated areas seeing enhancement from the vaccine, then, these areas have seen their loss of life rates  increase  so that they now are somewhat higher on average than the less-vaccinated areas. This worrying uncovering is only confirmed when we look into the triple-dose data for the same time period (Figure 4).

Figure 4

Once again, areas with higher third-dose coverage, far from seeing a noticable difference in outcomes over the pre-vaccination baseline, see excess deaths increase to the point that the more-boosted areas are slightly worse off than the less-boosted locations, the downward slope now turned into a slight upward slope.

Worse, the upward slope only will get steeper as we move into 2022 and the Omicron period (Figure 5).

Figure 5

Here, the significant upward slope signifies that the excess deaths in 2022 are much more concentrated in more-vaccinated than less-vaccinated areas of England. This would be bad enough, but recall that the baseline is the ‘ healthy vaccine effect’ whereby the extra death rates pre-vaccine were significantly lower in what would become the more-vaccinated areas. Placing the two charts side-by-side (Figure 6) shows the kampfstark difference in excess death rates before and after the vaccine rollout.

Figure 6: The left-hand image shows excess fatalities by area of England during the first wave, before vaccination, using first-dose vaccination information as reference; the right-hand image shows excess deaths in the same areas for that Omicron period. The reversal in the slope is indicative of a major reversal within the health outcomes of the more-vaccinated areas.

The reversal in the slope is indicative of a main reversal in the health results of the more-vaccinated areas. It may be that the reason for this change is not the vaccine – full data by vaccination status are required to confirm or refute this. But given that most of the other likely factors (e. g. age, starvation, background health conditions) are usually controlled for by the fact that areas are being compared to their own historic baselines, it is difficult to think what it could be. (To be fair, some of it could be mortality displacement from 2020 owing to more people within the less-vaccinated areas dying previously, though that can’t be everything given the trend gets worse for the more-vaccinated areas with time rather than better. )

At any rate, it offers no support to the claim that the particular vaccines reduce overall fatalities, suggesting that any discovering that claims they do may be a result of the healthy vaccinee impact.

Data expert Joel Smalley, who is behind the analysis,   commented : “ Some, remember, the burden is not on me to prove that will Covid jabs result in higher excess deaths, the responsibility is solely on the jab pushers to prove unequivocally that they reduce death. ”

The Government has  refused   to carry out an investigation into the reason for the recent wave associated with tens of thousands of excess deaths in the uk. Perhaps this is why.

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